22nd July 2017 – Monsoon Update & Week Weather Report

Monsoon Advance over India:

On 19^th Monsoon covered the whole country. It progressed gradually in following way in last week:

17^th July – The southwest monsoon was further advanced into some more parts of West Rajasthan, remaining parts of East Rajasthan and some more parts of Haryana

18^th July – Monsoon was further advanced into some more parts of West Rajasthan and Haryana on (NLM) passes through Lat.30.0°N / Long. 73.5°E,Ganganagar, Hissar, Patiala, Kapurthala and Lat.31.5°N / Long.74.5°E.

19^th July – Monsoon was further advanced into remaining parts of West Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. Thus it covered the entire.

 

Weather Systems

The low pressure area over North West Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast nicely became well marked low and travelled up to West Rajasthan across the central India and joined the low already existing over South West Rajasthan. This situation brought the whole country in the grip of monsoon current and gave tremendous rainfall over the area came in influence of this system. More over this low maintained the position of monsoon trough to the much south of its normal position. One more low developed over south Gujarat region which then merged with the low came from Bay of Bengal.

Since 22^nd July till today the position of low is over northern part of West Madhya Pradesh. The off shore trough was from Gujarat coast to North Kerala coast full week and was more marked. The east west shear zone was shifted from 18 deg latitude to 23 deg latitude from 18^th July to 22^nd July.

 

Rainfall Activity for Last week

During the last week 16^th to 22^nd July, monsoon was vigorous over Saurashtra and Kutch. Very heavy rainfall occurred over all the districts of Konkan and Goa state and all the districts of North Madhya Maharashtra during the week. Very heavy rainfall occurred over Gujarat state in later half of the week.

• On 21^st and 22^nd and active over all the districts of Konkan and Goa state, North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat region.
• Monsoon was active over Vidarbha on 20^th July.
• Rainfall occurred at most districts over Marathwada and south Madhya Maharashtra on 18  19  20^th July.
• Other days it was either few places or isolated places over these districts. The whole week was good for Maharashtra, Gujarat and Goa state.

 

Forecast for next week

A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Bangaladesh and Gangetic West Bengal on 22^nd of July and extends up to 7.6 kilometer above mean sea level. Under the influence of this cyclonic circulation a low pressure area is very likely to form during next 48 hours. As per European model this low will move west northwest direction.

Konkan – Goa :-

• On 23^rd 24^th 25^th districts of Thane, Raigad and Mumbai city will observe moderate to heavy rain due to low in Bay of Bengal.
• On 26^th light to moderate rainfall but on 27^th 28^th and 29^th only light rainfall because low will be moving towards west Uttar Pradesh. Districts of Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg will experience moderate rainfall throughout the week.

Madhya Maharashtra:- Districts of Sangli, Satara, Solapur and Kolhapur will get light rain on 23^rd 24^th 25^th but from 26^th onward only partly cloudy sky or light rain at isolated places.

Marathwada:-  For full week districts of Aurangabad, Parbhani, Nanded and Osmanabad will experience dry days either sunny or partly cloudy skies full week as the low will be forming in upper part of Bay of Bengal and moving towards West UP or Punjab.

Vidarbha:- Districts of Vidarbha will be getting light rain up to 26^th of July as the low will be moving towards west UP brushing MP but after 26^th only partly cloudy sky.

Gujarat region:- Districts of north Gujarat region will receive heavy to very heavy rain on 23^rd 24^th because of present situation of system which is over South Rajasthan.

• On 25^th and 26^th moderate to heavy rainfall.
• 27^th 28^th 29^th no rain or light rain.
• Districts of south Gujarat will receive moderate rainfall from 23^rd to 26^th July but because of present position of low over Rajasthan on 23^rd and 24^th heavy rainfall also likely to occur over south Gujarat region.
• From 27^th to 29^th light rain.

Saurashtra and Kutch :-

• Districts of Kutch will observe heavy to very heavy rain on 23^rd 24^th and moderate to heavy on 25^th 26^th July.
• On 27^th 28^th 29^th light rain or dry days.
• Saurashtra will get heavy to very heavy rain on 23^rd moderate to heavy on 24^th and 25^th July.
• On 26^th only moderate rainfall. From 27^th to 29^th cloudy sky and dry days.

 

Note on Monsoon watch.

Formation of weather systems in last week which formed over India and in Bay of Bengal were normal for July month. Due to these systems central India and central west India got heavy to very heavy rainfall.

The low pressure area over North West Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast became more marked on 16^th and extends up to 7.6 kilometer above mean sea level. On 17^th it became well marked low over North West and West Central Bay of Bengal off south Odisha and North AP coast.

On 18^th it intensified into depression and on 19^th entered in to land area and positioned over interior Odisha as a well marked low. Till 22^nd this system moved up to west Madhya Pradesh and the already existing low over south Rajasthan and one more low over south Gujarat region merged with this low. This is a normal July month week.

The plateau region experienced lot of rain over maximum area, which was very much required. These systems maintained the position of monsoon trough much south of its normal position. A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over north Bay of Bengal today on 23^rd July. Under the influence of this circulation a fresh low will form over the same area but this system will give rain to West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and North Rajasthan as per the model. As the system formed northern part of Bay of Bengal. So this system will give rain to northern part of central India. Now this is to observe whether this system will take the monsoon trough to northern side of normal position.