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MONSOON UPDATES AND WEEKLY WEATHER REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 09TH SEPTEMBER 2017

Realised Weather over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat State and Synoptic situation. (03rd Septemberto 09thSeptember)

Even though the monsoon trough was mostly to the foothills of Himalayas, on 7th and 8th September 2017 most of the districts of South Madhya Maharashtra such as Solapur, Kolhapur, Sangli and districts of Marathawada such Aurangabad, Parbhani observed vigorous monsoon. Also many places in the peninsular India which were deficit received good rainfall.

Satellite picture of 7th September 2017 1830 hrs IST
Satellite picture of 7th September 2017 1830 hrs IST

7th Sept Trough

The reason for increased rainfall is shown in the picture above, a cyclonic circulation developed over South West Bay of Bengal adjoining Tamilnadu and moved North Interior Karnataka crossing South Andhra Pradesh. Then later on 09thit became less marked.

Other reason was the presence of North-South trough from South Madhya Maharashtra to South Tamilnadu, Marathwada to South Kerala on 08th and 09th September. The North – South trough was embedded with cyclonic circulation and gave vigorous  rain over the area.


North-South Trough & Thunderstorm activity

Rainfall Distribution over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat

Rainfall Forecast for the week 10th September to 16thSeptember

Thunderstorm forecast

Note on Monsoon watch

 

North-South Trough & Thunderstorm activity

Along with the North-South trough mentioned above there were number of such trough observed in the eastern side of India along east Bihar to Gangetic West Bengal, East Bihar to interior Odisha and Sub Himalayan West Bengal to North Bay of Bengal from 05th to 09th September.

Due to these North – South troughs north westerly wind prevailed over western India (shown the wind flow in the picture above). At the junction of these two wind mixing of dry air & moist air take place and thunderstorm occur.

Rainfall Distribution over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat

North Konkan – Palghar, Thane, Raigad and Mumbai

South Konkan – Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg

North Madhya Maharashtra – Ahmednagar, Jalgaon, Nashik, Pune, Dhule, Nandurbar

Marathwada – Aurangabad, Parbhani, Nanded, Beed, Jalna, Latur, Osmanabad and Hingoli

West Vidarbha (Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Washim, Yavatmal)

East Vidarbha – Bhandara, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondia, Nagpur, Wardha

North Konkan area received light to moderate rainfall at most places on 03rd and 04th at isolated places from 05th to 07th and at few places on 08th and 09th September.

South Konkan area observed rainfall at most places on 03rd and few places on 04th at isolated places from 05th to 07th again at most places on 08th and 09th September.

North Madhya Maharashtra experienced light rainfall at isolated places on 03rd to 07th and at few places on 08 and 09th September.

South Madhya Maharashtra observed rainfall at few places on 03rd at isolated places 04th to 06th few places on 07th and most places on 08th and isolated places on 09th monsoon was vigorous over South Madhya Maharashtra on 08th September.

Marathwada observed dry weather on 03rd rainfall at isolated places on 04th 05th 06th and 07th and at most places on 08th and many places non 09th September. Monsoon was vigorous on 08th and active on 09th September.

Vidarbha observed light rainfall at isolated places from 03rd to 07th and moderate rainfall at few places on 08th and 09th September. Due to thunder storm at isolated places some area received heavy rainfall on 06th and 09th September.

North Gujarat region received light rainfall at many places on 03rd at few places on 04th and 05th at isolated places thereafter.

South Gujarat region also received rainfall like north Gujarat region.

Saurashtra & Kutch observed rainfall at many places on 03rd at isolated places on 04th and 05th and dry weather prevailed thereafter.

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Forecast for the week 10th September to 16thSeptember

Rainfall over the region including Vidarbha will be accompanied with thunder storm. In next week mostly cyclonic circulation will be forming at lower latitude and they will be crossing peninsular India giving rain to peninsular plateau. These circulation may intensify due to heating of plateau. Due to mixing of dry and moist wind thunder storm will take place. A cyclonic circulation will be forming over South West Bay of Bengal by tomorrow 10th September 2017. This circulation will be moving west ward by 16th September.

North Konkan: Light rainfall at isolated places on 10th , light to moderate rainfall at few places on 11th and 12th moderate rainfall at few places on 13th 14th again light to moderate rainfall at isolated places on 15th and moderate to heavy rainfall on 16th of September. Thunder storm may occur on 14th 15th and 16th over North Konkan area. Mumbai could face Thunder Storm even tomorrow evening.

Thunder storm may occur on 14th 15th and 16th over North Konkan area. Mumbai could face Thunder Storm even tomorrow evening.

South Konkan: Light rainfall at few places on 10th , light to moderate rainfall at many places on 11th , moderate to heavy rainfall at many places on 12th 13th 14th light rainfall at few places on 15th and then moderate to heavy rainfall at many places on 16th September. Thunder storm may occur at isolated places on 10th , 14th and 16th September.

North Madhya Maharashtra: Moderate to heavy rainfall at many places during next week. Thunder storm likely to occur at isolated places on 12th 14th and 16th September.

South Madhya Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall at many places on 10th 11th , moderate to heavy rainfall at many places on 12th September. On 13th moderate rainfall with isolated heavy spells on 13th September. Moderate to heavy rainfall likely to occur at many places on 14th 15th and 16th September. On 15th September some area will experience heavy to very heavy rain.

Marathwada: Light to moderate rainfall at few places on 10th 11th 12th and 13th , on 1th 15th and 16th there will be moderate to heavy rainfall at many places. Specially Aurangabad district will experience thunder storm full week.

West Vidarbha: Light to moderate rainfall at many places on 10th moderate to heavy rainfall at many places on 11th , light to moderate at few places on 12th and 13th 14th 15th and 16th September. Thunder storm likely to occur at isolated places on 14th , 15th and 16th September.

East Vidarbha: Light to moderate at many places on 10th 11th September ,dry weather will prevail on 12th , moderate rainfall will occur at few places on 13th 14th 15th and moderate to heavy rainfall will occur at many places on 16th September.

North Gujarat region: Dry weather will prevail on 10th light rainfall will occur at isolated places on 11th , light to moderate rainfall at few places on 12th accompanied with thunder storm. Moderate rainfall will occur at few places on 13th and 14th with thunder storm at isolated places. 15th and 16th will be dry for the area.

South Gujarat region: Light to moderate rainfall will occur at few places from 10th to 15th September. On 16th there will be moderate to heavy rainfall at many places.

Saurashtra: Dry weather on 10th September. Light to moderate rainfall at isolated places on 11th and 12th September . Moderate rainfall at few places on 13th September. 14th and 15th will be moderate rainfall at many places with few heavy spells. On 16th there will be light rainfall at isolated places.

Kutch: Only on 12th and 13th thunder storm activity will be there otherwise full week area will be dry

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Forecast for Thunder Storm:-

10th Evening :- Paithan, Jalna

11th Evening:- Baramati and Nasik.

12th Evening :- Nasik and Junnar.

13th Evening :- Nil

14th Evening Malegaon, Dhule, Nashik Ahmednagar and Roha (in Raigad Dist)

16th Evening Daund and Paithan.

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Note on Monsoon watch

Monsoon Withdrawal

From some area of North West India the monsoon wind starts withdrawing and dry wind take the place of moist wind during this month. North – South trough can be seen over Eastern part of the country. North West India and North Arabian sea observe anticyclone. West part of the country experience northwesterly wind. Due to this at some area northwesterly wind and southeasterly wind meet. At the area of meeting thunder storm occur.

Rain & Thunder in Peninsular India

A cyclonic circulation likely to form over South West Bay of Bengal. This cyclonic circulation will move westward and cross peninsular plateau. Due to this movement south of circulation there will be rain but to the north of circulation there will be thunder storm. Peninsular area is going to experience both type of weather in coming week.

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