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Weekly Report from 7th to 14th May

Heat Wave prevailed on 07th at isolated places over Vidarbha. Though maximum temperatures were above normal over other parts of Maharashtra state heat wave conditions did not prevail.

  • Last week from 7th to 13th May, thunder activity increased over peninsular India under the influence of a North-South trough from MP to North Interior Karnataka across Vidarbha, Marathwada.
  • From 07th May South Konkan – Goa and South Madhya Maharashtra experienced thunder storm and shower. As the week progressed the thunder activity spread northwards.
  • On 13th North Madhya Maharashtra experienced thunder storm.
  • On 12th and 13th May rainfall occurred at isolated places over Marathwada.

Below figure shows the North South trough. The dotted line shows the trough line with winds flowing west to east. As mentioned, there was only thunder activity but no rain (in areas above yellow line) in Vidarbha because Vidarbha did not had incursion of good moist wind, instead had dry winds coming from Rajasthan.

South Madhya Maharashtra (and areas below yellow line) received thunder along with good rain because it had supply of moist wind from Arabian Sea.

Rainfall recorded over 10 mm over the state:
On 8th May – Vengurla 11.6 mm
On 13th May – Mangaon 24.0 mm, Mhasala 14.6 mm, Bhira 14.0 mm, Mahableshwar (Hill Station) 40.6 mm

Forecast for next week 14th to 20th May 2017:
For Thunder activity:
14th to 17th May – Possibility of thunder activity in the districts of Sangli, Satara, Solapur, Kolhapur, also in districts of Marathawada such as Aurangabad, Beed, HIngoli, Jalna, Nanded, Osmanabad, Latur & Parbhani.
14th May – Thunderstorm with gusty winds in the districts of Sangli, Satara, Solapur, Kolhapur.

For Temperature:
Maximum temperature will be appreciably above normal over Vidarbha. It will be above normal over rest of the region till 17th May. From 18th May temperature would be falling by 2 to 3 degree Celsius.

 

Monsoon Watch:
Conditions are favourable for onset of the South-West monsoon over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands by May 15, five days ahead of the normal date. Normal date of onset of South West monsoon over Andaman Sea is 20th May.

The below images show the cross-equatorial wind flow (shown in red box). The wind flow that bring the monsoon from the southern hemisphere are currently strong. Strong cloud bands are seen over Arabian Sea between Latitude 05 deg N and equator (shown in red box of satellite picture). Keeping this in view one can say that monsoon may onset over Kerala before its normal date which is 01st June.

 

 

The US National Centres projected that thundershowers would grow in strength over the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and South-West Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea until May 19.

Thereafter, it sees explosive growth in the intensity of thundershowers along the Kerala and adjoining Karnataka coasts, monsoon flows consolidating further in the Bay. On 13th May morning at 0830 hours Kochi recorded 12 cm of rain. No model is suggesting the formation of any monsoon-disrupting depressions/cyclones, which have been a standard feature associated with the monsoon onset phase during the last few years.

 

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