Realised weather during the week 09-09-2018 to 15-09-2018.
During the last week Monsoon Trough shifted to the foot hills of Himalaya. Due to this synoptic situation Central India and interior peninsular India did not get rainfall. Maharashtra and Gujarat also did not get rainfall. Hill area and North East India received heavy rainfall.
Forecast for the week 16-09-2018 to 22-o9-2018.
Monsoon trough is at present at the foot hills of Himalaya. This week also same situation will continue. However eastern part of trough is likely to shift southward since a low pressure area is likely to form over West Central Bay of Bengal around 18th of September.
The forecast of position of low & associated rainfall:
- Till 21st it will be in the sea area and will continue to intensify. Hence there will be no rain over Maharashtra and Gujarat. Only coastal Odisha and Interior Odisha including Andhra Pradesh will get heavy to very heavy rain.
- By 21st it will be either depression or deep depression.
- From 22nd onward it will move west north west ward over land area.
- By 23rd morning it will reach to Jabalpur and nearby area. So Vidarbha region will get rain from 23rd
For Maharashtra and Gujarat the week will be having dry days with one or two passing showers. Only on 22nd some districts of Maharashtra such as Jalgaon, Nandurbar and Dhule will start getting rain.
The low is likely to form on 18th of September over west central Bay of Bengal. Since this low, which will continue to intensify over sea area up to 21st, it is difficult to declare the monsoon withdrawal date from west Rajasthan.
The low will move West Northwest ward over land area. Over Indian coast also there is no trough rather a ridge like is seen. Due to this synoptic situation even coastal area also not getting rain. As the low will be reaching up to Jaipur or west Uttar Pradesh there is feeble chances of forming anticyclone over west Rajasthan so chances of declaring withdrawal of monsoon is less.