Realised weather during the week 12-08-2018 to 18-08-2018.
Rainfall Activity due to Low pressure system in last week:
- On 13th August a low pressure formed over northwest Bay of Bengal.
- On 14th it became Well Marked Low.
- On 15th night it concentrated in to depression. This system moved west northwest direction and benefitted all part of Maharashtra and Gujarat state.
- On 16th August Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra received heavy rainfall. Some rainfall figures recorded on 17th at 0830 hours were Akola 8 cm, Amravati 6 cm, Buldhana 13 cm, Washim 11 cm, Nanded 19 cm, Aurangabad (AP) 16 cm, Jalna 15 cm, Parbhani 14 cm, Satara 16 cm, Jalgaon 14 cm, Nandurbar 14 cm, Peth (Nasik) 10 cm, Igatpuri 7 cm and Ahmednagar 6 cm.
After giving rainfall to Maharashtra state it moved towards Gujarat state.
- On 18th Ahmedabad recorded 9 cm. From Gujarat it moved to East Rajasthan and became less marked on 18th August.
In the first half of the week, monsoon trough was situated north of its normal position. Because of this system in the later half monsoon trough was at the south of its normal position. In all last week was good for Maharashtra state. (Read how monsoon trough affects rainfall activity over India)
Forecast for the week 19-08-2018 to 24-08-2018. (Maharashtra, Gujarat and Goa)
A cyclonic circulation is lying over West Bengal and adjoining south Odisha coast. Under the influence of this cyclonic circulation a low pressure area is going to form during next 24 hours. However the system is moving in Northwesterly direction as per European model. So this system will not give any benefit to Maharashtra and Gujarat state. East Rajasthan will continue to receive moderate rainfall. Some amount of rain west Rajasthan also will get.
From 19th to 21th August, Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra will continue to receive moderate rain as passing showers. Gujarat state will not receive rainfall during this period. However Konkan and Goa will continue to receive moderate rainfall during the same three days. In the second half of the week rainfall activity will further decrease over the region including Vidarbha.
Monsoon trough will remain to the south of its normal position due to low pressure area forming by 20th of August. Because of this This low pressure area will be moving northwesterly as per model. In future pacific sea will continue to supply remnant of cyclone and in this sequence on 26th of August one more system is going to form in Bay of Bengal.