Realised weather during the week 29-07-2018 to 04-08-2018.
During the last week subdued rainfall activities continued over central India and central west India only Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Uttarakhand received heavy rainfall.
Low pressure area over North West Uttar Pradesh weakened and re-intensified on 30th of July. It was quasi stationary over UP and poured rainfall over all part of UP. Maharashtra and Gujarat state was dry full week. Monsoon trough was north to its normal position.
Forecast for the week 05-08-2018 to 11-08-2018.
A Low Pressure Area will be forming in Bay of Bengal. This system is forming little North in Bay of Bengal. Because it is forming at higher latitude, it will not give rain to Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat state and peninsular India. The direction may be towards north Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan. Only South Konkan will get rainfall in second half of the week. North Konkan will continue to receive passing shower.
Monsoon trough will be to the north of its normal position and Low pressure area forming over North Bay of Bengal will be moving West NorthWest giving rain to interior Odisha North Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh there after to East Rajasthan. In the next week again Haryana, Punjab will be getting rain. Central and south of Central part of India has to wait to form another low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal. IMD and IITM suggested that cyclogenesis process is weak in Bay of Bengal. System forming in Bay of Bengal only activate the monsoon again. So two week central India has to wait for rainfall.