Early Monsoon Over Andaman Islands

Monsoon Watch:
Conditions are favourable for onset of the South-West monsoon over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands by May 15, five days ahead of the normal date. Normal date of onset of South West monsoon over Andaman Sea is 20th May.

The below images show the cross-equatorial wind flow shown in red box. The wind flow that bring the monsoon from the southern hemisphere are currently strong. Strong cloud bands are seen over Arabian Sea between Latitude 05 deg N and equator. Keeping this in view one can say that monsoon may onset over Kerala before its normal date which is 01st June.

The US National Centres projected that thundershowers would grow in strength over the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and South-West Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea until May 19.

Thereafter, it sees explosive growth in the intensity of thundershowers along the Kerala and adjoining Karnataka coasts, monsoon flows consolidating further in the Bay. On 13th May morning at 0830 hours Kochi recorded 12 cm of rain. No model is suggesting the formation of any monsoon-disrupting depressions/cyclones, which have been a standard feature associated with the monsoon onset phase during the last few years.