Realised Weather over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat State and Synoptic situation. (17th Septemberto 23rdSeptember)
Positions of Cyclonic Circulation
Last week there was good south west monsoon activity over Maharashtra state. A cyclonic circulation of East Central Arabian sea moved to northeasterly direction and set over South Gujarat region on 17th.
On 19th it set over North Madhya Maharashtra and adjoining Konkan and on 22nd of September it became less marked. The main character of this cyclonic circulation was though it did not convert in to low pressure area but vertical extension increased during the period.
On 17th and 18th it’s extension was up to 5.8 but on 19th and 20th it’s extension was up to 7.6 kilometer above mean sea level. It poured rainfall over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and part of Marathwada.
Another system which was a remnant of Hurricane DOKSURI developed over North West Bay of Bengal as cyclonic circulation on 17th , moved fast over land and set as a well marked low pressure area over Northern part of Central Madhya Pradesh crossing Chhattisgarh on 22nd of September and extension was up to 7.6 kilometer above mean sea level. This system also gave good rainfall over Vidarbha and Marathwada.
Monsoon trough was from Amritsar to East Central Bay of Bengal. Middle part of trough came south wards little because of well marked low. On 23rd the well marked low was over West Uttar Pradesh.
||17th to 21st
||17th to 21st
||17th to 21st
|North Madhya Maharashtra
|South Madhya Maharashtra
||16th 18th and 19th
||17th & 21st
||19th 20th and 21st
Rainfall activity for less over Gujarat state. Rainfall occurred at few places over Gujarat region from 17th to 19th and at one or two places from 20th to 23rd September. Rainfall occurred at number of places over Saurashtra& Kutch 17th 18th and at one or two places on 19th and 20th and weather was dry on 21st 22nd and 23rd September over Saurashtra and Kutch.
Forecast for the week 17th September to 23rdSeptember
North Konkan (Greater Mumbai, Thane, Raigad and Palghar): Light rainfall at one or two places full week except 27th and 28th when there will be moderate rainfall at few places.
South Konkan: Moderate rainfall will occur at few places on 24, 25, 26 Sept and thereafter moderate to rather heavy rainfall at many places.
North Madhya Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall will occur at one or two places next week except 27, 28, & 29 when there will be moderate rainfall at few places.
South Madhya Maharashtra: Moderate rainfall at few places 24, 25, 26, 29 Sept and moderate rainfall with one or two heavy spell at many places on 27, 28, 30 Sept.
Marathwada: Light to moderate rainfall at one or two places on 24, 25 Sept, light to moderate rain at few places on 26 29 and moderate rainfall at many places on 27 28 and 30 Sept.
Vidarbha: Light rain at one or two places from 24th to 29th Sept but light to moderate rainfall at many places on 30th September.
Gujarat state: Gujarat state will be dry full week.
Note on Monsoon watch:
Anticyclone establishment over West Rajasthan started and rainfall over West Rajasthan is now out of question. At this situation it can be said that withdrawal of southwest monsoon from northwest India is in process. IMD may declare at around 28th of September. A cyclonic circulation over South East Bay of Bengal formed on 22nd and extension was up to 7.6 kilometer above mean sea level but today as per IMD inference it became less marked.
A trough runs from this system to Lakshadweep area across South Bay of Bengal, Rayalaseema and Kerala. This development is a sign of development North East monsoon.
Forecast for Thunder Storm:
28thEvening: Kolhapur and Sholapur