Understanding Monsoon Forecast 2017 by Sky Met

The private agency Sky Met also predicted 95% but they told it below normal. Sky Met also said that there will be zero % chances of excess rainfall.

Sky Met predicted distribution also and clearly told about month wise rainfall. Following table can be made from the announcement of Sky Met.

Month	Normal Rainfall	Predicted Rainfall
June	164 mm	167 mm
July	289 mm	272 mm
August	261 mm	243 mm
September	173 mm	166 mm

Further Sky Met said that there will be on time onset and good progress in June month. As El Nino developing in the middle of monsoon July August and September will not be good enough. The another announcement Sky Met made that Odisha Jharkhand will have good rainfall where as Rajasthan, Gujarat and Western India will face less rainfall.

As per the probability of the forecast from the below given information, the highest probability of 50% refers to normal rainfall which is 96% onwards. But still it was surprising to see that Sky Met predicted 95% below normal rainfall.

The probability of forecast:

1. 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
2. 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
3. 50% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
4. 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
5. 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)